Can You Handle The Truth?
There are as many ways to supposedly beat the market
as there are market players.
In my search for "what works" I don't think I have left many
stones, if any, unturned. To save you time, money and frustration,
I'm going to shoot straight from the hip and tell you what I have found
to be true for me.
I'm going to step on toes and do all I can to destroy market myths...this
will upset many people...so be it. These comments are based on my experience.
I am more than willing to listen to "the other side of the story" but
my search has shown the following:
W. D. GANN---This is the biggest fraud going. I knew Gann's son and
promotion manager. The wild claims about W. D. are incorrect and do
no match with what his son and F. B. Thatcher told me. I bought the
Gann $5,000 course. It is a collection of general commentaries laced
with astrology. Gann, shortly before he died, sold his advisory service
to 2 or 3 different people at the same time.
FIBONNACI--Here's a technique that claims to be able to tell us where
markets will go to, or retrace to, based on a pattern of numbers. The
pattern goes like 1,2,3,5,8,13 and on and on. Each new number is the
sum of the last 2 numbers. Additionally, going back, say from 13 to
8 is a 61.8% retracement. I have shown, from actual market studies
of turning points, that these supposed resistant points of 61.8, 38.0
are meaningless...that in fact, markets are no more apt to bottom or
top at these numbers than any other number.
ASTROLOGY---Frankly, while a skeptic and doubting Thomas, I have seen
some evidence that in some way people are affected by all this. Guys
like Arch Crawford have had too many good calls, and the Bradley Model
as well, to diss the entire subject.
Yet....this is no sure thing either.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS----Ah, great focus has been placed on
the fact that a market will "bounce" off former highs and
lows. The notion is that what was once support (a market low) will
become resistance if a market has fallen below and is rallying back
to that area. It will...about half the time...and no one can tell you
which half!
POINT AND FIGURE CHARTS/CANDLESTICK CHARTS---These are just different
ways of looking at price patterns. I think Point and Figure (P&F)
is a waste of time...it leaves time out of the equation. Besides, P&F
charts of stocks look the same as P&F charts of spins on a roulette
wheel.
Candlestick charts are an art form. I have programmed close to 100
of their supposed "best patterns" and have found that most
of the time the patterns are meaningless or don’t work as the
vendors of this ilk claim.
THE BOTTOM LINE---There are few paths to easy
wealth and sudden riches....I have many friends that use the
tools discussed above and do well. How can that be? Because these
people are smart, good traders and use these as tools...there
is no one mystic formula to this business. Why? Because the market
is bombarded every day with random influences. I hope all this
helps in your pursuit of what is true for you.
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